By Dele Sobowale
A totally truthful politician is an oxymoron; a contradiction in terms. Dissembling apparently is indispensable to the profession — notwithstanding the fact that most of them ensure that they are seen praying!! The war in Iran is coming to a dreary end. It has cost everybody in the world trillions of dollars and it would cost the Americans an estimated one trillion dollars by the time it is eventually over. But President Trump and his government are claiming only $21 billion. That is a politician for you.
On May 29, 2026, as President Tinubu marked the end of his third term in office, Nigerians and the rest of the gullible global audience were treated to a remarkable fairy tale about the economic performance from 2023 to 2025, as well as a glimpse of what to expect in 2026 and beyond – if Tinubu is re-elected. The President’s announcement was full of dreams which might come true; if only everybody in governments wakes up. Otherwise, it was another May 29, when Nigerians received a trope of nice sounding words – signifying nothing. The past three years have pushed the masses of Nigeria beyond the point of endurance. Hope nurtured in the RENEWED HOPE AGENDA has faded significantly. Only the favoured few now even remember the promises made; in order to compare them with the actual performance. This article will focus on some of the core economic promises and what was eventually delivered.
Gross Domestic Product, GDP
“The truth shall set you free; but, first, it shall make you miserable.”
Presidential candidate Tinubu made several promises during the campaigns which he might have forgotten; or deliberately chose to ignore on May 29, 2026. Below are figures from the RENEWED HOPE publication – side by side with the actual performance on each economic variable.
Gross Domestic Product, GDP ($bn)
PROMISE* ACTUAL+ VARIANCE
2023 531.3 363.2 -168.1
2024 586.7 252.1 -334.6
2025 643.3 386.4 -256.9
GDP Growth Rate (%)
PROMISE* ACTUAL+ VARIANCE
2023 10 2.7 -7.3
2024 10 1.9 -8.1
2025 10 4.1 -5.9
* All the promises can be found on page 13 of the Renewed Hope Document
+ Actual data were sourced from World Bank/IMF Reports
Variances represent differences between the promises made and the actual results for the three years – 2023 to 2025.
Three obvious conclusions are inescapable from the figures presented. Judging by the promises made in the Renewed Hope Agenda, Tinubu has recorded massive failures on the economy.
First, clearly, the targets set for each year were over-ambitious – given what Tinubu later described as an “economy on the brink of collapse”
Second, it is also obvious to any professional economist or financial expert that expecting 10 per cent annual growth of the GDP, right away, from an economy which has never achieved that level of performance amounted to self-deception of the worst kind.
In the eight previous years, under Buhari, the Nigerian economy achieved over two per cent growth only twice; and experienced recession in 2016 and 2020. Furthermore, the economies which have recorded 10 per cent GDP growth in the past – The USSR, Japan and China – were characterized by high capital expenditure, steady and cheap power and energy supply, infrastructural development, high literacy rate, transparency and accountability and strict attention to budget implementation.
The economy Tinubu was going to inherit lacked, and still lacks, all the fundamentals for rapid growth. No nation has achieved 10 per cent annual growth for five or six years based on wishful thinking or mere dreams of their leaders. Nigeria will not be the first.
Power promise
“Eliminate Estimated Billing
We will end this unpopular and harmful practice and ensure that all electricity bills are meter-based” – Renewed Hope Agenda, p 30.
At the end of the third year of Tinubu’s administration, as many Nigerians as in 2023 still receive estimated bills. I still do – despite petitions to the regulatory commission and the Ministry of Power. Certainly, the President of Nigeria is aware that no other nation allows the legalized fraud called estimated billing. How many years will be needed to fulfill this promise?
Fuel and rising poverty
“Petrol price soars 643% in three years.” Report, June 2, 2026
If you are still wondering why you are getting poorer, don’t look far. Irrespective of whether you drive your own car or public transport, the 600+ rise in fuel price has already guaranteed your increasing impoverishment – unless your income has also escalated by the same percentage.
Add the increases in the prices of cooking gas and re-charging your phone. Then, it is easy to understand why the companies in those sectors are declaring high returns. Less than two percent of Nigerians are beneficiaries of current reforms. The rest of us are paying for it.
The post Truth about Tinubu’s economic performance 2023 to 2025 appeared first on Vanguard News.
