•60 to 70 per cent of voters afraid of voting – security analyst
•INEC warns of N10m fine, jail term for inflammatory campaigns
•Attacks on rallies, convoys heighten fears
By Omeiza Ajayi
ABUJA: Between 60 to 70 per cent of Nigerian voters are afraid that political violence will stop them from voting in 2027, a security expert, Mr Onyekachi Adekoya, has said, as voter apathy continues to rise.
Adekoya spoke on Friday morning on The Morning Brief, a programme on Channels Television. He cited a calculation by Yiaga Africa.
“If you look at Yiaga Africa’s calculation, 60 to 70% of voters are worried that political violence will not allow them come out on the day,” he said.
He said that fear works against turnout. “Once the violence and the rhetoric of it goes up, people are less likely to come out to vote, and perhaps that is, some would argue, part of the strategy at play by some parties,” he said.
There have been recent incidents, including attacks on party convoys and on an assembly in some states including Delta, Cross River, Lagos, Edo and Gombe states. In Delta State, a man was apprehended and not handed over to the police. He was then reportedly killed.
Adekoya said violence was already rising and would get worse. “It is already ticking over 70 incidents captured so far,” he said. “This is not the peak of it because the campaign season has just started.”
He said the stakes went beyond 2027, with politicians positioning for 2031 and 2039.
“We expect that this political season will be a bit more violent and true to type,” he said.
He said pressure on local politicians would raise tensions. “Politicians at the local level are under significant pressure to deliver on their areas and that would most likely raise tensions. What it will look like is that politicians use violence to destabilize the opponents in opponents’ area of strength so that they can lose votes.”
Adekoya said his firm’s report classed 14 states as toss-up states, which would be “keenly contested”. He named the North Central, North East and North West, and parts of the South East, as areas of concern.
“Nobody should die because somebody is trying to be president,” he said.
On what security agencies could do, Adekoya said the shortfall lay in resources. “If at all there is a failure in security it is because of lack of capacity, poor logistics planning and the fact that we have a hydraheaded security problem which cannot be resolved,” he said.
He said enforcement could not be left to the agencies alone. “There is a command structure where also politics get in the way of enforcement. It should not be a job only for the police, it should be a collective responsibility,” he said.
The concerns followed a run of threats by office holders in several states in recent weeks, which has drawn condemnation from civil society groups, rights organisations and opposition politicians.
In Osun State, Senator Francis Adenigba Fadahunsi (Osun East) was questioned by the Nigeria Police Force over a viral video. He was heard telling supporters in Ilesa: “Until the day of election, when you see any Accord party member here in Ilesa, kill them.” Governor Ademola Adeleke rejected the senator’s clarification, called the remarks a national security threat and demanded his arrest.
In the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), the Chairman of Kuje Area Council, Mr Samuel Danjuma Shekwolo, warned residents who do not support his party to relocate ahead of 2027. Amnesty International Nigeria condemned the remarks as a “call to violence.”
In Borno State, the Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development, Mr Sainna Buba, said those who refuse to support the ruling party in 2027 “will be flogged.” He also warned that anyone who crossed the party would have a finger broken.
In Kebbi State, the Chairman of Gwandu Local Government Area, Alhaji Atiku Ahmad Mandiya, told supporters that anyone who spoke against Governor Nasir Idris “should be dealt with.”
The International Republican Institute (IRI) said civil society monitors recorded more than 81 election-related violent incidents in Osun State alone in the year before the August governorship poll. A Pre-Election Security Risk Assessment by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) documented 73 election-related violent incidents, with 29 deaths, ahead of local polls in the state.
Against this backdrop, the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC has warned that politicians and parties who use abusive, intemperate or inflammatory language risk fines and imprisonment under the Electoral Act 2026.
INEC’s Chief Press Secretary/Media Adviser to the Chairman, Mr Adedayo Oketola, said campaign rhetoric becomes punishable once it moves beyond policy critique.
“Under the Nigerian legal framework, rhetoric becomes punishable intimidation when it incites ethnic, religious, or regional hostility through abusive, base, or slanderous language explicitly designed to provoke violent emotions or target specific groups,” Oketola said, citing Section 96 of the Act.
Quoting the law and attendant penalties, he said: “A political campaign or slogan shall not be tainted with abusive language directly or indirectly likely to injure religious, ethnic, tribal or sectional feelings. Any candidate who commits these offences is liable upon conviction to a maximum fine of ₦5,000,000 or imprisonment for a term of 12 months.
“A non-compliant political party is liable to a fine of ₦10,000,000 in the first instance, and ₦2,000,000 for each subsequent offence.”
Oketola said INEC is an election management body, not a security agency. “The Commission can issue formal queries and sanction non-compliant parties within its administrative limits,” he said.
He said the Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies have a duty to prevent a breakdown of law and order, while the media and traditional and religious leaders should discourage inflammatory language.
“Political campaigns should be platforms of competing ideas, not theatres of war,” Oketola said.
