Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are seen tied in a simulated run-off for this year’s presidential election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday.
FIRST ROUND
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Leftist Lula would take between 39% and 42% of the vote in three simulated first-round scenarios with different opponents.
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Right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is seen taking between 38% and 39% in the same scenarios.
RUN-OFF
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Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are seen tied at 46% in a potential run-off, the poll showed.
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About 7% of respondents said they would vote for neither of the candidates.
ADDITIONAL CONTEXT
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Markets have tracked polls closely since imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son Flavio sent Brazil’s currency and equities sliding in December.
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The 80-year-old Lula, who defeated the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, will seek a fourth non-consecutive term as president.
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In Brazil, if no candidate gets more than 50% of valid votes, the two frontrunners go to a second-round vote, which has happened in every election since 2002.
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Nexus surveyed 2,006 people between March 27-29. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.
