There is no election that does not matter to serious politicians. For the focused and strategic ones, every election — whether at the grassroots or at the national level — is seen and approached as a test of political strength. That is why whenever elections approach, words like “capturing” and “do-or-die”, among others, are used so loosely in our political lexicon.
Last weekend’s elections in the Federal Capital Territory’s area councils, as well as the contests in Kano and Rivers states, were not exceptions. They may have been local in scope, but they were national in implication. In Nigeria, no election is ever truly “minor”. Beneath the ballots cast for chairmen and councillors lies a deeper story about party strength, voter enthusiasm, elite alignments, and the mood of the electorate.
With the 2027 general elections already looming on the political horizon, these off-cycle and subnational polls offer an early reading of who is organising effectively, who is losing ground, and who may be quietly building momentum.
In the FCT, the ruling party at the federal level, the All Progressives Congress, won five of the six chairmanship seats, while the opposition Peoples Democratic Party won the remaining seat. The APC also secured victories in major wards. Similarly, in Kano State, the APC won the by-elections conducted to fill the vacant seats for Ungogo and Kano Municipal constituencies in the state House of Assembly. A comparable scenario played out in Rivers State, where the APC won the Khana Constituency II and Ahoada East II Constituency by-elections into the state House of Assembly.
Expectedly, these “minor” contests are already shaping political narratives ahead of the 2027 general elections. The APC and its leaders, celebrating the party’s wins, have described the victories as a referendum on President Bola Tinubu’s performance in office. Opposition parties like the PDP and the African Democratic Congress, however, are crying foul. They insist that the elections were neither free, fair, nor credible.
That these elections were held roughly 18 months before the 2027 general elections is very instructive, giving political actors and voters their first major test of readiness. Local elections matter greatly because they are often seen as forerunners that can be used to measure political strength, grassroots mobilisation, and the solidity of party structures.
As for the FCT area council elections, the outcome may not have surprised neutral observers. Opposition politicians may have hoped for a miracle or an upset, but most indications ahead of the election pointed towards a landslide for the APC. The role of the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike, in the victory cannot be waved aside, even by his staunch political rivals. That a faction of the heavily polarised PDP managed to win the Gwagwalada Area Council is, to me, the real miracle or upset. The party overperformed in that instance. The ADC, too, expected to reap from the election, but as the saying goes, wishes are not horses, and beggars cannot ride.
Kano and Rivers states hold significant positions in the nation’s political space. Kano is more than qualified to be described as the political heartbeat of the North — the performance of parties there often indicates where national support may be trending. That is why serious politicians across geopolitical zones pay close attention to developments in that state. The recent defection of the state governor from the New Nigeria People’s Party to the APC further confirms that political realignments are underway ahead of the general elections.
Rivers State also has a history of deep political contestation and fiercely disputed polls. Like Kano, the state governor recently defected from the PDP to the APC, following prolonged battles with his predecessor, Wike, and state lawmakers loyal to him. His political survival, whether temporary or strategic, has largely been attributed to the intervention of President Tinubu, who stepped in to calm tensions and appease the aggrieved lawmakers.
How each party fared in the two states and the FCT will go a long way in determining which direction the nation’s political pendulum may swing. Parties that see themselves as third forces, such as the ADC, still have significant work to do. They must carefully analyse what these results suggest about voter appetite for alternatives beyond the two dominant parties.
Voter behaviour also presents an important learning curve as the general elections beckon. Did turnout reflect enthusiasm or apathy? Were there observable trends among youth voters that could influence strategies for 2027? These are questions that cannot be ignored.
Election management and credibility are equally central to any assessment of last weekend’s polls. How were the elections in the two states and the FCT conducted — were they smooth, troubled, or heavily contested? How the process was handled and how the outcomes are perceived will inevitably influence public confidence ahead of the general elections.
Naturally, political actors are interpreting the results differently, depending on which side of the divide they belong to. Winners will hail the Independent National Electoral Commission for a job well done, while losers will demand explanations and, in some cases, seek to vilify the commission and its leadership.
These elections matter far beyond council chairmanships and isolated legislative seats — they reveal the pulse of the electorate, test the strength of party machinery, and foreshadow the battles that will dominate 2027.
If history is any guide, the road to 2027 will not begin with presidential primaries or political parties’ national conventions; it has already begun in ward collation centres, council secretariats, and strategic strongholds like Kano and Rivers.
The lessons from last weekend’s elections are clear: grassroots structures matter, local grievances travel upward, and political complacency is costly. For parties and aspirants with national ambitions, the message is unmistakable — ignore the signals from these local ballots at your peril.
