AI boom lifts trade but raises financial risks

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has become a major driver of global merchandise trade, but its growing concentration in technology-related goods and investment exposes the global economy to financial risks if demand slows.

The new insights are contained in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) latest Trade and Development Report 2026.

UNCTAD said global trade in goods and services grew by 4.4 per cent in real terms in 2025 and was projected to expand by about four per cent in 2026.

However, the report said the growth rested on a narrow base, with AI-related goods, including chips and servers used in data centres.

The growth accounts for about one-sixth of global goods trade by value in 2025 and contributing 42 per cent of its growth.

UNCTAD warned that a slowdown in demand for AI hardware could remove a major source of momentum from global merchandise trade.

The organisation added that higher prices have also driven much of the recorded growth in trade values since March 2026.

“The AI boom shows signs of earlier financial bubbles. A fall in share prices could trigger selling and squeeze credit well beyond the technology sector,” the trade body said.

AI concentration

The report also highlighted the concentration of AI investment, which is dominated by spending on advanced chips and model development in 2026.

While such spending generates relatively little employment, UNCTAD said data centres were helping to stimulate economic activity.

According to UNCTAD, investment remains concentrated in China and the United States, with Europe benefiting to a lesser extent.

Also, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand are also benefiting to varying degrees.

It said investment in US data centres would reach $400 billion in 2026 and approximately $600 billion in 2027.

This represents projected growth of about 300 per cent in 2026 and 50 per cent in 2027, compared with a projected seven per cent increase in fixed investment across all sectors of the US economy in 2026.

“Without data centres, the investment picture would look profoundly different,” the report said.

Investment flows

UNCTAD said the concentration of economic activity was also evident in international investment, with global foreign direct investment (FDI) rebounding to $1.6 trillion in 2025, a six per cent increase that ended two consecutive years of decline.

However, the recovery was uneven, as FDI inflows to developed economies rose by 11 per cent, compared with a two per cent increase in developing economies, according to the UNCTAD’s 2026 data.

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The report attributed the changing pattern of investment to geoeconomic fragmentation, industrial policies and technological competition, which increasingly influence where capital flows.

It said investors were directing funds towards capital- and technology-intensive projects in strategic sectors, including AI computing infrastructure, data centres and critical minerals, rather than focusing primarily on short-term profitability or the cost of capital.