Ukraine’s push for a fast track into the European Union as part of any peace deal has hit stiff resistance from EU governments, who do not want to open the Pandora’s box of problems that they fear a quick accession would unleash.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants a 2027 date to join the EU as part of a settlement to end Russia’s war, hoping this would anchor his country in Europe’s main political club and offer a path to greater prosperity, security and stability.
A clear route into the EU could be vital for Zelenskiy in selling any peace settlement to Ukrainians, particularly if – as is widely expected – Ukraine does not regain control of all of its territory or join the NATO military alliance, analysts say.
But EU governments – including heavyweights France and Germany – have privately voiced scepticism about a mooted reform of the accession process that would shorten Ukraine’s path to membership, diplomats say. Reuters spoke with eight European diplomats and officials, and many pointed to unease among EU capitals about the idea.
Among their concerns is that Ukraine and others would not press on with reforms, such as cracking down on corruption, if it has already been granted EU membership.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and lead EU negotiator Taras Kachka told Reuters that Kyiv was ready to address EU members’ concerns. He proposed safeguards such as a monitoring system to check Kyiv was sticking to democratic standards and a transition period before it received EU farm subsidies.
But he said a political commitment to a membership date would be important. “This is necessary for the peace process, for the establishing of long-lasting and just peace in Europe,” he said.
CURRENT MEMBERSHIP PROCESS IS LONG AND COMPLEX
The current process for joining the bloc is usually long and bureaucratic, even in straightforward cases, involving years of detailed negotiations and legal reforms to meet EU democratic and economic standards.
Every step of the accession process, which is divided into chapters and clusters of policy issues, also requires approval from all EU members. Hungary has blocked Ukraine’s path early in the process.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, head of the bloc’s executive, has floated a revamp of the process behind closed doors, diplomats say.
Instead of carrying out all the required reforms first, a country could join the EU after meeting some minimum requirements – but with limited access to EU funds and decision-making until they meet all the membership benchmarks.
That could make it easier for Ukraine and others such as Moldova, Montenegro and Albania to join quickly – although Zelenskiy’s target of January 1, 2027, would still be unrealistic, not least as all 27 current EU members have to ratify any accession.
EU GOVERNMENTS UNCONVINCED BY COMMISSION OVERTURES
Kachka suggested Ukraine could at least sign an accession treaty with the EU next year, even if ratification and other steps might take longer to implement.
But analysts and diplomats see little appetite for such bold moves, including von der Leyen’s mooted revamp, known as “reverse enlargement” as it turns the process on its head by letting a country join before it has met all the current criteria.
“The growing support for populist and anti-enlargement parties in several capitals makes governments cautious about being seen to accelerate a process they have not yet built public consent for,” said Anastasia Pociumban, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
“The concept of reverse enlargement is dead,” said one EU diplomat. “There is also no support for giving a concrete accession date.”
A Western European official said: “Ukraine is just not ready and has rampant corruption.”
Von der Leyen tried to temper expectations in Ukraine last week. She told Zelenskiy publicly that “dates by themselves are not possible” even as she praised the country’s reforms in the midst of war.
COMMISSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING FOR KYIV
Nevertheless, the Commission is expected to continue to push for ways to get Kyiv into the EU in the next few years, arguing that membership would strengthen the bloc militarily amid fears Moscow may attack an EU member next.
Some say a model of gradual integration, whereby aspiring members take part in more and more EU programmes and meetings before joining the club, may be more feasible.
“I think a full accession within the next few years remains unlikely,” Corina Stratulat, associate director at the European Policy Centre, said of Ukraine’s prospects.
“What seems more likely to happen instead is accelerated integration – single market access, energy, digital, transport – phased participation in EU programmes and policies.”
