Greenland’s vote in Denmark’s parliamentary election on March 24 will serve as a barometer of Greenlanders’ appetite for independence, as competing visions for the Arctic island’s future relationship with Copenhagen expose political divisions that could create openings for U.S. President Donald Trump to exploit.
While Greenland’s governing coalition, led by Demokraatit, advocates a pragmatic, long-term path toward independence with Denmark as a key partner, the opposition Naleraq party is pushing for a swift separation, sharpening a divide that analysts say Washington could seek to make use of.
“The American side has begun to look for areas where Greenland has real disagreements with Denmark,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, a researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies. But he added that recent U.S. pressure had inadvertently strengthened cooperation between Nuuk and Copenhagen.
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the election in a bid to capitalize on rising domestic support for her firm rejection of U.S. pressure over Greenland, a stance that has drawn broad backing across the Danish political spectrum.
In Greenland, a Danish colony until it became a formal part of the Kingdom of Denmark in 1953, the vote will test whether that pressure has pushed sentiment towards earlier independence or greater dissatisfaction with both Denmark and the island’s coalition government. The independence movement there, which began in the 1970s, has gained traction in recent years.
A sharper political divide has emerged since Greenland’s own parliamentary election in March last year. When the Danish election was called on Thursday, Naleraq’s leader, Pele Broberg, accused other parties of “uncritically giving in to the wishes of Denmark and the Danish people for ownership of Greenland” and claimed some wanted to “remove our right to independence.”
“As the only opposition party, Naleraq could well attract a lot of dissatisfied voters,” said Rasmus Leander Nielsen, associate professor at the University of Greenland.
One Naleraq lawmaker in Greenland’s parliament has, over the past year, travelled to the United States, meeting members of the Trump administration without the consent of Greenland’s government, causing further division in the public debate among Greenland’s 57,000 residents.
Analysts say frustration with Denmark and a growing desire for autonomy could erode traditional support for governing coalition parties such as Siumut and Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA), making the Greenland vote more unpredictable than in previous Danish elections.
Copenhagen has sought to repair relations with Greenland after several incidents in recent years involving allegations of misconduct by Danish authorities.
Last year, Denmark publicly apologised to Greenlandic women subjected to decades of involuntary birth control practices. The contraception campaign came to light in 2022 when records showed that thousands of women and girls as young as 13 were fitted with intrauterine devices without their knowledge or consent between 1966 and 1991, the year Greenland assumed control over its healthcare system.
Siumut is calling for the immediate release of an expert report examining whether the campaign constituted genocide, and it has called for voters to have access to the findings before the March 24 election.
Despite the problematic relationship, many Greenlanders were relieved when Frederiksen managed to garner support from key European allies when Trump made it clear he still wanted to take over the island.
“Some have been very angry with Mette Frederiksen, but others have also pointed out that she has been quite good at defending Greenland,” said Leander.
