Nigeria could double investment flowing into its energy sector within the next five years as global supply disruptions increase demand for reliable energy-producing countries, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Birol said Nigeria’s closer relationship with the Paris-based energy watchdog could help attract fresh capital into oil, natural gas, electricity and renewable energy while strengthening the country’s position in global energy markets.
Speaking during a visit to Abuja, the IEA chief said his goal is to see energy investment into Nigeria at least double within five years, supported by the country’s substantial resource base and changing global energy trade patterns.
Nigeria became an Association country of the IEA in July, deepening cooperation between Africa’s largest oil producer and one of the world’s most influential energy organisations.
The partnership comes at a critical period for international energy markets.
Supply disruptions arising from conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine, alongside uncertainty surrounding major energy transportation routes, have forced governments and companies to reassess where they source crude oil, natural gas and other critical energy supplies.
Birol said the changes have increased the importance of countries capable of establishing themselves as dependable long-term suppliers.
For Nigeria, that shift could create an opportunity to attract investment that has been missing from its energy industry for years.
The country possesses some of Africa’s largest oil and natural gas reserves and significant renewable energy potential, particularly solar power, but inadequate investment, infrastructure constraints, security challenges and policy uncertainty have historically limited development.
Nigeria is now seeking to reverse years of underinvestment while increasing crude oil production and expanding natural gas infrastructure.
The government is targeting crude production of about 3 million barrels per day by 2030, nearly double recent production levels.
Achieving that target would require substantial investment in exploration, field development, pipelines and other production infrastructure, alongside continued improvements in security across oil-producing areas.
Nigeria has introduced a series of reforms intended to make its oil and gas industry more attractive to international and domestic investors.
Authorities have also intensified efforts to tackle crude theft and pipeline vandalism, which previously contributed to significant production losses and discouraged investment.
Improved security and the return of previously disrupted production have helped Nigeria rebuild output, but reaching 3 million barrels per day would require a much larger wave of capital spending.
The IEA partnership could strengthen those efforts by giving Nigeria greater access to international expertise, energy data and policy support while increasing its visibility among governments and private investors.
Nigeria and the agency have agreed to develop a joint work programme covering energy data, gas development, electrification and energy efficiency.
The cooperation is expected to help improve the quality of information available to policymakers and investors while supporting the development of projects across Nigeria’s energy value chain.
Beyond oil, natural gas represents another major investment opportunity.
Nigeria holds Africa’s largest proven natural gas reserves but has struggled to fully commercialise the resource because of insufficient processing, transportation and export infrastructure.
Additional investment could support gas processing facilities, pipelines, liquefied natural gas projects and gas-fired electricity generation while helping Nigeria increase domestic utilisation and exports.
Renewable energy is also expected to form an important part of the investment drive.
Nigeria’s large population, electricity deficit and abundant solar resources have created opportunities for investment in utility-scale solar projects, mini-grids and distributed electricity systems.
The IEA said Nigeria’s admission as an Association country would strengthen cooperation across these areas while giving the country a greater voice in international energy policy discussions.
The timing could prove particularly important as geopolitical disruptions reshape global energy trade.
Conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine have disrupted established supply relationships, while uncertainty surrounding strategic shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the vulnerability of countries heavily dependent on a limited number of energy suppliers.
Birol said trust has consequently become increasingly important in determining international energy relationships, with importing countries seeking partners capable of providing dependable supplies.
Nigeria could benefit from that realignment if it can combine its large resource base with policy stability, reliable production and infrastructure capable of moving energy efficiently to international markets.
Recent expansion of Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity could further strengthen that position.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery has transformed Nigeria from a country heavily dependent on imported petroleum products into an increasingly important supplier of refined fuels to regional and international markets.
Nigeria’s growing refining capacity, combined with higher crude production and further development of its gas resources, could broaden the country’s role in global energy trade beyond crude oil exports.
However, doubling investment within five years will ultimately depend on Nigeria’s ability to sustain reforms, provide regulatory certainty and demonstrate that investors can deploy long-term capital profitably.
The opportunity has increased as global energy markets search for new and reliable sources of supply.
Whether Nigeria captures that opportunity will depend on how quickly the country converts its resources, reforms and closer relationship with the IEA into bankable projects capable of attracting billions of dollars in new investment.
