Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is expected to decline to 15.02 percent in May 2026 from 15.56 percent recorded in April, according to analysts.
The forecast suggests inflation could slow by 54 basis points month-on-month, extending the disinflation trend that has emerged in recent months and providing further relief for households and businesses grappling with elevated living costs.
Analysts attribute the expected moderation largely to stabilising food prices, which remain the largest component of Nigeria’s inflation basket.
Improved supplies of key agricultural products, better market availability and relative stability in transportation costs contributed to slower food price increases during the month.
Food inflation has historically been the primary driver of headline inflation in Nigeria. Consequently, any moderation in food costs tends to have a significant impact on the overall consumer price index.
Market observers say lower inflation could improve consumer purchasing power, support business activity and strengthen confidence in the economy.
A continued decline in price pressures may also influence expectations ahead of future monetary policy decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Investors are closely watching the inflation trend because it remains one of the key indicators shaping interest rate expectations, fixed-income yields and broader economic outlook assessments.
Should inflation ease to the projected 15.02 percent, it would represent another step toward price stability and reinforce expectations that inflationary pressures are gradually becoming less severe than in previous periods.
However, economists caution that exchange rate movements, global commodity prices, logistics costs and seasonal factors remain important risks that could influence inflation dynamics in the months ahead.
