A report by ThisDaylive has identified Northern Nigeria as a major battleground in the 2027 presidential election, with President Bola Tinubu facing potential challenges from former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and the emerging alliance between Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso.
The report noted that the North’s large voting population, shifting political alliances, economic hardship and security concerns could significantly influence the outcome of the January 16, 2027 presidential election.
According to the analysis, the region’s electoral importance is underscored by its share of Nigeria’s registered voters and the role it played in Tinubu’s victory in 2023.
Figures cited in the report show that Nigeria’s registered voters increased from 93,469,008 in 2023 to 103,428,715 in October 2026.
The 19 northern states, excluding the Federal Capital Territory, account for 54,282,630 registered voters, compared with approximately 48.59 million in 2023.
The report stated that Tinubu secured 5,507,784 votes across the 19 northern states in the 2023 presidential election, representing approximately 62.6 per cent of his national total of 8,794,726 votes.
It argued that any significant reduction in the president’s northern votes could affect his chances of retaining the presidency, particularly if he fails to compensate for potential losses with gains in other regions.
A hypothetical 20 per cent reduction in Tinubu’s 2023 votes from the northern states, the report noted, would amount to approximately 1.1 million votes, equivalent to more than 60 per cent of his national winning margin over Atiku in 2023.
However, the analysis cautioned that voter registration figures do not automatically translate into votes, noting that turnout, collection of Permanent Voter Cards, security and campaign mobilisation would remain important factors.
Atiku, Obi-Kwankwaso Alliance Challenge APC
The report identified Atiku’s northern political connections and the proposed Obi-Kwankwaso alliance as significant factors in the emerging contest.
Atiku, who secured nine northern states in 2023, is expected to rely on his established political relationships and recognition across the region.
Obi’s partnership with Kwankwaso, meanwhile, could reshape the contest by combining Obi’s support base in parts of southern Nigeria with Kwankwaso’s grassroots political influence, particularly in Kano State.
The analysis suggested that the alliance could challenge established assumptions about voting patterns in the North, although its ability to translate the partnership into a unified national electoral force remains uncertain.
It also highlighted the possibility that divisions among opposition parties could benefit Tinubu if their candidates compete for the same pool of voters in key states.
The report, however, noted that the opposition candidates could also attract different constituencies and mobilise additional voters rather than simply divide existing support.
Tinubu Mobilises Northern Political Leaders
The analysis also examined efforts by pro-Tinubu political groups to strengthen the president’s position in the region.
It cited the October 12 declaration of support by Arewa for Asiwaju, a group of northern political figures, following a meeting with Vice-President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa.
Former Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau reportedly spoke for the group, which is seeking to counter concerns that the North has been neglected under the Tinubu administration.
The report also referenced the Tinubu Again Movement promoted by Minister of State for Defence Bello Matawalle, alongside the involvement of prominent northern politicians in efforts supporting the president’s re-election.
It noted, however, that political endorsements and the backing of influential figures do not necessarily guarantee votes, as candidates must still persuade voters to support them at the polls.
Economic Hardship, Insecurity Could Influence Voting
Beyond political alliances, the report identified economic conditions and insecurity as issues that could shape voters’ decisions in 2027.
It noted that many Nigerians would assess the administration based on their ability to afford food, access public services, travel safely and conduct their businesses without fear.
While the government could point to reported economic growth and improving macroeconomic indicators, the analysis argued that these gains would need to translate into tangible improvements in household living standards.
The report also noted that opposition candidates would need to offer credible alternatives to the administration’s policies rather than rely solely on public dissatisfaction.
It added that insecurity, low household incomes and dependence on agriculture and informal trade could make economic conditions particularly important to voters in northern communities.
South-East, South-West and South-South Also Matter
Although the report placed significant emphasis on the North, it stressed that the presidential election would be determined by voting patterns across the country.
In the South-East, it examined whether governors and other political leaders supporting Tinubu could persuade voters who overwhelmingly backed Obi in 2023 to reconsider their preferences.
The report cited the large margins Obi recorded in Anambra, Enugu and Abia in the previous election, while noting that the region’s political alignments have since changed.
In the South-West, it highlighted the need for Tinubu to consolidate his traditional support base amid potential challenges in Lagos, Osun and Oyo.
The report noted that Obi defeated Tinubu in Lagos in 2023, while Atiku won Osun. It also identified Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde’s reported presidential ambition on the platform of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as a possible complication for the ruling party’s calculations in the region.
In the South-South, the analysis examined the implications of governors defecting from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), including the potential organisational advantage this could offer Tinubu.
However, it cautioned that changes in governors’ party affiliations do not automatically determine how voters will cast their ballots in a presidential election.
The report also highlighted the political complications in Rivers State and the Federal Capital Territory involving FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, Governor Siminalayi Fubara and former Rivers Governor Rotimi Amaechi.
It noted that Wike’s declared support for Tinubu would have to be assessed against the voting patterns recorded in Rivers and the FCT in 2023.
2027 Presidential Election Remains Uncertain
The ThisDaylive analysis concluded that Tinubu’s re-election prospects would depend partly on whether he can retain sufficient support in the North while maintaining his position in the South.
It identified incumbency, party organisation, political alliances and support from several governors as advantages available to the president.
Atiku’s northern political profile and Obi’s partnership with Kwankwaso, however, present competing approaches to building a national electoral coalition.
The report cautioned against treating claims about the president’s potential vote share in the North as established predictions without credible opinion polls or transparent state-by-state forecasting models.
It also warned that public dissatisfaction with the government would not automatically translate into a unified opposition vote.
With the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, the report argued that the North remains central to the electoral calculations of the major contenders.
The central question, it said, is whether Tinubu can rebuild and sustain the northern coalition that contributed significantly to his 2023 victory, while his opponents seek to convert their political support into a coordinated challenge for the presidency.
