Four regions – the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, the waters off Somalia, and the Black Sea – are now simultaneously active theatres of danger, on a scale the shipping industry has not seen before.
Vessels and seafarers are being trapped and attacked in conflicts that have nothing to do with the ships themselves.
Damien Chevalier the Director, of the Maritime Safety Division at the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) spoke to UN News about the scale of the threat and what’s being done to protect ships and crews.
What crisis is the shipping industry facing?
This is the first time so many vessels and seafarers have been threatened across multiple regions at once. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is unprecedented in terms of the number of vessels (2000) and seafarers (20,000) that were impacted at the beginning of the conflict.
Damien Chevallier, Director of the Maritime Safety Division at the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
The industry now faces a combination of crises: not just Hormuz, but Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and a sharp rise in piracy near Somalia, where seafarers are held hostage.
There has also been a significant increase in attacks in the Black Sea, where parties to the conflict are using drones to target oil tankers and grain-carrying vessels.
Why is there an increase in piracy off Somalia?
Naval assets are more focused on the threats in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, and so pirates have taken the opportunity to operate, particularly against smaller, easier-to-attack bulk carriers.
A recent meeting on maritime law enforcement focused heavily on counter-piracy, given the surge in incidents and the deteriorating security situation in Somalia.
Somalia is working on new anti-piracy legislation, which could help address a key gap; the lack of a legal framework to prosecute captured pirates humanely, even when naval assets are present.
What is happening in the Black Sea?
There is no direct link between what is happening in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, so, in that sense, it is a separate crisis.
An international team monitors the export of grain from the Black Sea in 2023.
Verifying information is difficult and disinformation from warring parties is common. Although precise figures cannot be confirmed, the number of attacks, vessels targeted, and crew fatalities or injuries in the Black Sea is extremely concerning.
What we do know is that Ukraine grain ports are seeing only one or two vessels a day, despite it being harvest season. We would normally expect to see 20 to 30.
Why is shipping the common thread across these conflicts?
What makes this moment genuinely unprecedented is not just the number of incidents, but the pattern behind them.
Shipping has become a deliberate instrument of geopolitical leverage.
Whether it is drones targeting oil tankers and grain carriers in the Black Sea, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, or a resurgence of piracy off Somalia exploiting the naval vacuum left by other crises, commercial vessels are increasingly treated as pressure points in disputes between States.
Seafarers are the first to feel the impact. An additional risk has come from substandard ships in various regions of the world, something IMO is working on, including through tackling issues like fraudulent registries and the fraudulent registration of ships.
What is the broader economic impact?
The consequences are severe and far-reaching. The Strait of Hormuz alone carries roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil, so disruption there affects inflation and living costs globally.
Both the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea are also critical for fertilizer and the latter for grain exports, meaning food security is at stake. The impact is likely to be felt into next year, particularly in developing countries.
Farmers around the world like this olive grower in Mongolia rely on fertilizer to grow their crops.
While wealthier nations can draw on strategic reserves, this is only a short-term buffer; once reserves are depleted, a second wave of crisis follows. Rising shipping costs, from rerouting to added security measures, compound the problem, driving up prices on top of reduced supply.
Being a seafarer has become a genuinely dangerous profession
What are the long-term concerns?
Perhaps the deepest concern is the future of the seafaring workforce itself as without seafarers there is no shipping industry.
With rising casualties across the Black Sea, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz, being a seafarer has become a genuinely dangerous profession. Seafarers are not trained to deal with threats from actions which are linked to wider security issues or geopolitical situations.
It makes it even harder to attract younger generations wary of long stints away from family and friends as well as limited Internet connectivity.
The consequences of this shortfall may not be visible for five to ten years, by which point it will be too late to address quickly, given the time needed to recruit, train, and qualify new seafarers.
Another risk is for the environment. Any ship that is attacked may become a threat to the marine environment.
What is the solution?
Diplomacy, respect for humanitarian and international law, as well as a return to constructive engagement through the UN rather than adversarial statements.
We must not normalise the threat to shipping, for example by focusing on arming ships. This could even prompt certain actors to simply develop smaller, more evasive weapons in response.
We must focus on diplomacy.
