U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to delay the planned summit in Beijing with Chinese leader Xi Jinping casts a shadow over mutual ties that have been stable since their last meeting in October, but is unlikely to cause a major setback, analysts said.
Trump’s move shows how the Iran conflict has upended his foreign policy agenda and added war to trade and Taiwan among the spectrum of issues separating the world’s two biggest economies.
The delay hits pause on the retooling of bilateral relations just as both sides concluded high-stakes trade talks in Paris on Monday to lay the groundwork for Trump’s Beijing trip, originally slated for the end of the month.
The negotiations followed Washington’s imposition of new investigations into “unfair trade practices” aimed at rebuilding trade pressure on countries around the world – including China – after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs last month.
“The situation is not in jeopardy, and Beijing still wants to organise the summit, but the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Supreme Court ruling on tariff policies have complicated these efforts,” said Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert from Shanghai’s elite Fudan University. “It makes U.S.-China interactions this year more difficult because of Trump’s ‘war of choice’ in Iran.”
Zhao added the postponement would mean there was also time for more trade actions.
“The White House says it will continue its tariff policy, but without a doubt, we could see new uncertainties in this regard that impact Beijing’s calculations on dealing with the U.S.,” he said.
A source familiar with the Paris talks told Reuters before the second day of meetings that China showed openness to potential additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods including poultry, beef and non-soybean crops.
The two sides also discussed the flow of rare earth minerals largely controlled by China and new approaches to manage trade and investment between the countries.
State-run China Daily described the negotiations in an editorial published on Tuesday as “constructive,” but warned Trump that Beijing’s “openness should not be mistaken for acquiescence.”
“The U.S. side should refrain from taking any further actions that could disrupt or undermine a stable China-U.S. economic relationship. Actions that inject uncertainty — whether tariffs, restrictive measures or unilateral investigations — do just that,” read the editorial.
That sentiment would similarly apply to the setting up of the summit, according to Alfred Wu of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. “The fluctuations (in plans) are not ideal from China’s perspective, China actually wants something more predictable,” he said.
MIXED MESSAGES
U.S. officials have sent mixed messages about the reason for the delay. On Sunday, Trump told Britain’s Financial Times he might postpone the meeting if China did not help unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump may need to delay the trip due to coordinating the war effort – not because of the request that China help police the strait or because of any trade disagreements.
Still, despite the delay, the priority for both sides is keeping relations on an even keel and continuing to plan for a successful visit, analysts said. They added that for the export-reliant Chinese economy, dealing with the rising uncertainty in the global economy was the No. 1 priority.
“China’s first priority remains keeping the relationship with the United States relatively steady so it can continue focusing on self-strengthening in preparation for the longer-term strategic competition ahead,” said Patricia Kim, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Kim added that China understood keeping Trump satisfied was key to managing bilateral ties, and would still host Trump even though it might be wary of giving him too grand a reception as the U.S. continued military operations against Iran, a strategic partner for Beijing.
“Trump is preoccupied with a war in Iran that has not been resolved as quickly as predicted, so he is keen to ensure that the military and economic fallout from that is contained within the next couple of weeks or so … which means planning a successful visit to Beijing is next to impossible,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society.
“From China’s perspective, there’s been a lot of concern in Beijing about the lack of preparations from the American side for the summit so Chinese policymakers wouldn’t mind an extra few weeks to prepare for a more substantive visit.”
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian echoed this sentiment on Monday when asked about Trump’s weekend remarks. “Diplomacy between heads of state plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to China-U.S. relations,” he said.
There is ongoing communication about the timing of the trip, Lin told a briefing on Tuesday.
