Kazakhstan holds a referendum on Sunday on a new constitution that some critics say could allow President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to remain in charge of Central Asia’s largest economy beyond his current term limit of 2029.
Tokayev, a former diplomat who has maintained good relations with Russia, the U.S. and China, has called the referendum “a truly historic moment” that moves Kazakhstan, an energy and minerals giant, away from a “super-presidential” system towards a greater separation of powers.
But some analysts say the draft retains an excessively powerful presidency.
“[It] significantly increases the powers of the head of state and does not create a system of checks and balances,” said political analyst Dosym Satpayev.
The proposal merges parliament’s two chambers into one and restores the post of vice-president, abolished in 1996, who would be picked by the president.
Kazakh presidents would remain limited to a single term of seven years, a change Tokayev himself introduced in 2022.
Tokayev, 72, has said he will step down in 2029, but some observers say a new constitution could reset his term limit, a tactic used by the leaders of several other ex-Soviet republics, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.
RETURN TO THE UN?
Referring to a rumour widespread in Kazakhstan that Tokayev may run for the post of United Nations secretary-general this year, Satpayev said the vice-presidency would allow Tokayev to anoint a successor before leaving office early.
A Kazakh diplomatic source told Reuters that Tokayev, who headed the UN’s Geneva office in 2011-2013, is considering both being a candidate for secretary-general and seeking a possible second presidential term.
Tokayev has said he does not want to return to the UN.
State-approved pollsters say a large majority backs the new constitution, while public opposition to it has been subdued.
The vote comes at a fraught time for Kazakhstan, whose economy is closely intertwined with Russia’s, and which has suffered from the Ukraine war fallout.
Economic growth has accelerated but so has inflation, hitting 11.7% in February, while interest rates are at 18%, a record high. A tranche of tax rises has deepened discontent.
Asya Tuligenova, who sells horsemeat, a Kazakh delicacy, at a bazaar in the commercial capital Almaty, said traders were shouldering rising costs to avoid passing them on to consumers.
“We’re kind of afraid. If we raise prices, it will be difficult for our regular customers.”
She did not say whether she would vote on Sunday.
