Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, down from 15.15 per cent recorded in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
This decline came despite earlier projections by analysts that Nigeria’s inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January.
The NBS report showed that the Consumer Price Index fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, representing a 3.8-point decrease.
The NBS said the January headline inflation rate was 0.05 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in December.
On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 15.10 per cent in January 2026, which is 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at negative 2.88 per cent in January, compared to 0.54 per cent in December, indicating that the average price level declined during the month.
The NBS report read, “The Consumer Price Index declined to 127.4 in January 2026, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease from the preceding month (131.2).
“In January 2026, the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.10 per cent, down from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Looking at the movement, the January 2026 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.05 per cent compared to the December 2025 Headline inflation rate.”
The bureau noted that the percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending January 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 21.97 per cent, which represents a 4.37 percentage point increase compared to the 17.59 per cent recorded in January 2025.
A breakdown of the figures showed that urban inflation stood at 15.36 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, sharply lower than the 29.45 per cent recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation declined by 2.72 per cent, compared to 0.99 per cent in December.
The corresponding twelve-month average for urban inflation was 22.30 per cent.
Rural inflation was 14.44 per cent on a year-on-year basis in January 2026, down from 25.04 per cent recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation fell by 3.29 per cent compared to a negative 0.55 per cent in December. The twelve-month average for rural inflation stood at 21.03 per cent.
Food inflation recorded a significant slowdown. On a year-on-year basis, it stood at 8.89 per cent in January 2026, which was 20.73 percentage points lower than the 29.63 per cent recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined by 6.02 per cent in January compared to a negative 0.36 per cent in December.
The NBS attributed the decline to reductions in the prices of items such as water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef and cassava.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending January 2026 was 20.29 per cent, down from 38.47 per cent recorded in January 2025.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, compared to 25.27 per cent in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation declined by 1.69 per cent compared to 0.58 per cent in December.
The twelve-month average core inflation rate was 22.84 per cent, lower than the 27.24 per cent recorded in January 2025.
At the state level, Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi at 20.98 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at 19.25 per cent.
Ebonyi, Katsina and Imo recorded the lowest year-on-year headline inflation rates at 8.72 per cent, 8.94 per cent and 10.61 per cent, respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, Imo and Ondo recorded the highest increases at 1.93 per cent and 1.932 per cent, respectively, while Cross River, Ogun, and Kogi recorded the sharpest declines at negative 6.34 per cent, negative 6.30 per cent, and negative 6.03 per cent, respectively.
For food inflation, Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 19.84 per cent, followed by Benue at 18.38 per cent and Adamawa at 17.29 per cent, while Ebonyi, Abia and Imo recorded the slowest rise in food prices.
